The Confidence Game
Franklin Roosevelt said, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Its not just a clever phrase. The stock market is currently at its natural baseline level, minus all the speculation. Retail sales for January for general merchandise are actually 1% higher than they were a year ago. That should be and probably will be the bottom of the economic downturn. Unless, of course, fear becomes too much of a factor.
Left to its own devices, the economy will return to a slow, steady growth built solidly on actual productivity. But fear works on the economy in the exact opposite manner of speculation. If fear reaches a flash point, it can drive the market down fast, hard, and long - the opposite curve of the speculation bulge we just experienced.
So, confidence is the game that must be played or our situation might turn down as long as it was recently up, which lasted roughly 12 years. And just as stocks are currently at their 12 year low, back to the "normal" level just before the speculation bubble, we could slip into a 12 year bottom before our economy gains steam again.
Unfortunately, the Obama administration has not offered up the "fear itself" kind of confidence proclamations that helped us climb out of the Great Depression. And to make matters worse, the Obstructionist Party (Republicans, this time around), are preaching the gospel that the stimulus plan cannot work, leaving unsaid the natural progression of that idea to the conclusion that "we are doomed," and leaving that for the American public to work out on its own.
In the attempt to be upfront and honest, the administration does nothing to extinguish the smoldering coals of fear, and the Obstructionists play the other side of the equation by fanning them red hot.
Sooner or later, the American people will reach a flash point and when they do, sales will grind to a virtual halt, the economy will stall, and we'll be stuck in the grip of the Even Greater Depression.
Obama, you've won. Tell us that what we supported is going to save us, even if you know it can't do it by itself. You saw what the American people can do in your very own campaign when they belief in the audacity of hope. Tell us that now you have been elected, we can dare to hope again.
Obstructionists, The stimulus bill is law. You can't undo it, and all your complaining can only serve to undermine its effectiveness. Yes, I realize that you got kicked out of power (for now). And that if you support it and it works, Obama and the Party In Power get the credit. If you support it and it fails, you'll be equally blamed. But if you don't support it and it fails, we're all in a kettle of fish together.
So wake up, people! Support the stimulus bill with confidence. And for those of you in service to the public, stop preaching doom and gloom from on high, both in the bully pulpit and in the mosh pit.
Left to its own devices, the economy will return to a slow, steady growth built solidly on actual productivity. But fear works on the economy in the exact opposite manner of speculation. If fear reaches a flash point, it can drive the market down fast, hard, and long - the opposite curve of the speculation bulge we just experienced.
So, confidence is the game that must be played or our situation might turn down as long as it was recently up, which lasted roughly 12 years. And just as stocks are currently at their 12 year low, back to the "normal" level just before the speculation bubble, we could slip into a 12 year bottom before our economy gains steam again.
Unfortunately, the Obama administration has not offered up the "fear itself" kind of confidence proclamations that helped us climb out of the Great Depression. And to make matters worse, the Obstructionist Party (Republicans, this time around), are preaching the gospel that the stimulus plan cannot work, leaving unsaid the natural progression of that idea to the conclusion that "we are doomed," and leaving that for the American public to work out on its own.
In the attempt to be upfront and honest, the administration does nothing to extinguish the smoldering coals of fear, and the Obstructionists play the other side of the equation by fanning them red hot.
Sooner or later, the American people will reach a flash point and when they do, sales will grind to a virtual halt, the economy will stall, and we'll be stuck in the grip of the Even Greater Depression.
Obama, you've won. Tell us that what we supported is going to save us, even if you know it can't do it by itself. You saw what the American people can do in your very own campaign when they belief in the audacity of hope. Tell us that now you have been elected, we can dare to hope again.
Obstructionists, The stimulus bill is law. You can't undo it, and all your complaining can only serve to undermine its effectiveness. Yes, I realize that you got kicked out of power (for now). And that if you support it and it works, Obama and the Party In Power get the credit. If you support it and it fails, you'll be equally blamed. But if you don't support it and it fails, we're all in a kettle of fish together.
So wake up, people! Support the stimulus bill with confidence. And for those of you in service to the public, stop preaching doom and gloom from on high, both in the bully pulpit and in the mosh pit.
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